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Table 1 Expected inflows and outflows estimated by the organizers (see endnote 55 for more details)

From: Crowd disasters as systemic failures: analysis of the Love Parade disaster

Time Expected inflow/h Expected outflow/h
14:00-15:00 55,000 10,000
15:00-16:00 55,000 50,000
16:00-17:00 55,000 45,000
17:00-18:00 90,000 55,000
  1. Based on these values, the maximum number of visitors on the festival area was expected to be 235,000 (while a capacity of 250,000 was approved and more than 1 million visitors were expected, according to announcements before and during the event).60 Estimates based on surveillance videos of camera 13 suggest that the actual flows were considerably below the values in the above table. According to the endnote,61 the inflow in the time period between 14:00 and 15:00 varied between 280 and 600 persons per minute and the outflow between 6 and 80 persons per minute. Between 15:00 and 15:40, it varied between 450 and 750 persons per minute and the outflow between 40 and 250 persons per minute. This is 30-50% below expectations of the organizer of the Love Parade and implies a maximum number of visitors on the festival area of about 175,000.