Figure 3

Cell growth-rate projections (gy) combining econometric estimates of the impact of temperature on economic growth with the temperature rise projections of 0.5°C to 6.5°C warming relative to 2005 levels. (a) The projected per capita GDP growth of cells by different models and 95% confidence intervals, with the median projection given as the solid line. The dashed line refers to national GDP growth (Fig. 2-no lags) as a comparison. (b)–(d) Distribution maps of cell-level per capita GDP growth (gy) when temperatures rise by 1°C and by 6°C. Contour lines are plotted if the predicted values fall in the range. In (b)-(d), the blue lines indicate areas where the per capita GDP growth is 0 (0%). The purple lines indicate areas where the per capita GDP growth is 1 (100%). The gray lines indicate where the per capita GDP change is 0.6 (0.6 equals a 60% increase in the per capita GDP). The gray line \(gy=0.6\) is set as the mean GDP growth in the base year 2005