From: Experimental evaluation of baselines for forecasting social media timeseries
Domain | Platform | Metric | ARIMA | Hawkes | Shifted | Hawkes + ARIMA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vz19 | nAPE | 0.1525 | 0.3201 | 0.2912 | 0.2363 | |
nRMSE | 0.2235 | 0.2655 | 0.2688 | 0.2421 | ||
nSMAPE | 0.2325 | 0.2679 | 0.281 | 0.2186 | ||
nDTW | 0.2038 | 0.2577 | 0.3192 | 0.2192 | ||
nSkewness | 0.3971 | 0.0145 | 0.3275 | 0.2609 | ||
nVolatility | 0.2548 | 0.2588 | 0.2208 | 0.2656 | ||
ONME | 0.244 | 0.2307 | 0.2848 | 0.2405 | ||
YouTube | nAPE | 0.1732 | 0.3449 | 0.2229 | 0.259 | |
nRMSE | 0.2142 | 0.2895 | 0.2487 | 0.2476 | ||
nSMAPE | 0.1477 | 0.3919 | 0.2418 | 0.2186 | ||
nDTW | 0.2594 | 0.1887 | 0.3208 | 0.2311 | ||
nSkewness | 0.3253 | 0.1981 | 0.1741 | 0.3025 | ||
nVolatility | 0.2435 | 0.2735 | 0.2032 | 0.2798 | ||
ONME | 0.2272 | 0.2811 | 0.2352 | 0.2565 | ||
CPEC | nAPE | 0.6087 | 0.1709 | 0.0014 | 0.2189 | |
nRMSE | 0.422 | 0.1555 | 0.2138 | 0.2087 | ||
nSMAPE | 0.2973 | 0.2614 | 0.2043 | 0.237 | ||
nDTW | 0.3046 | 0.149 | 0.245 | 0.3013 | ||
nSkewness | 0.4228 | 0.0403 | 0.1043 | 0.4325 | ||
nVolatility | 0.1265 | 0.4236 | 0.2526 | 0.1974 | ||
ONME | 0.3637 | 0.2001 | 0.1702 | 0.266 | ||
YouTube | nAPE | 0.3236 | 0.4291 | 0.04 | 0.2073 | |
nRMSE | 0.2278 | 0.2322 | 0.3151 | 0.2249 | ||
nSMAPE | 0.231 | 0.2535 | 0.2601 | 0.2554 | ||
nDTW | 0.2694 | 0.2251 | 0.2325 | 0.2731 | ||
nSkewness | 0.4576 | 0.1381 | 0.2496 | 0.1547 | ||
nVolatility | 0.3426 | 0.2176 | 0.1528 | 0.287 | ||
ONME | 0.3087 | 0.2493 | 0.2083 | 0.2337 | ||
BRIA | nAPE | 0.2179 | 0.2575 | 0.2869 | 0.2377 | |
nRMSE | 0.1772 | 0.302 | 0.3012 | 0.2197 | ||
nSMAPE | 0.2455 | 0.2832 | 0.221 | 0.2503 | ||
nDTW | 0.2637 | 0.2473 | 0.2418 | 0.2473 | ||
nSkewness | 0.8351 | 0.0351 | 0.0216 | 0.1081 | ||
nVolatility | 0.3819 | 0.1849 | 0.2769 | 0.1563 | ||
ONME | 0.3536 | 0.2183 | 0.2249 | 0.2032 | ||
YouTube | nAPE | 0.3506 | 0.5111 | 0.0667 | 0.0716 | |
nRMSE | 0.2256 | 0.2756 | 0.2861 | 0.2127 | ||
nSMAPE | 0.268 | 0.2451 | 0.2479 | 0.239 | ||
nDTW | 0.3537 | 0.1789 | 0.2683 | 0.1992 | ||
nSkewness | 0.3971 | 0.1862 | 0.2292 | 0.1875 | ||
nVolatility | 0.6145 | 0.0512 | 0.0422 | 0.2922 | ||
ONME | 0.3682 | 0.2413 | 0.19 | 0.2004 |