Experimental evaluation of baselines for forecasting social media timeseries

Ng, Kin Wai; Mubang, Frederick; Hall, Lawrence O.; Skvoretz, John; Iamnitchi, Adriana

doi:10.1140/epjds/s13688-023-00383-9

EPJ Data Science

Table 2 Topic Inter-Annotator Agreement scores (IAA) and corresponding descriptions in each context. We include the aggregated volume of activities per topic in both Twitter and YouTube over the periods we consider

From: Experimental evaluation of baselines for forecasting social media timeseries

Domain	Topic	IAA	Volume		Description
Domain	Topic	IAA	Twitter	YouTube	Description
Vz19	maduro/dictator	0.78	1,281,021	25,776	Posts that describe Maduro as a dictator, or when its administration is represented as a dictatorship.
	arrests	0.70	842,546	1944	Describes arrests or people who have been taken prisoners during on-the-ground events.
	other/chávez	0.70	958,450	18,372	Posts with terms related to the late president of Venezuela, Hugo Chávez.
	military	0.69	3,502,074	12,895	Posts about the Venezuelan military, security forces, or other armed militarized organization.
	international/aid	0.68	2,336,919	12,168	Descriptions of foreign humanitarian aid sent or requested to be sent to Venezuela.
CPEC	controversies/china/border	0.91	180,078	260	Discussions related to the disputed Chinese-Indian border.
	leadership/sharif	0.89	82,327	132	Positively discusses leadership by Nawaz Sharif, former prime minister of Pakistan.
	controversies/china/uighur	0.85	25,854	52	Posts that bring attention to the Uighur controversies in Xinjiang China.
	controversies/pakistan/baloch	0.85	84,621	410	Statements that advocate for Baloch independence, or emphasize exploitation of Baloch by Pakistan or China.
	benefits/development/roads	0.83	43,831	222	Discussions on road or railway projects in Pakistan related to CPEC.
BRIA	covid	0.82	774,284	2018	Coronavirus and related topics such as vaccines in Africa.
	debt	0.82	23,803	205	Debts or loans, where the lender is China and the lendee is an African nation
	infrastructure	0.78	28,397	205	Roads, railways, ports or other infrastructure project as part of the BRI in Africa.
	travel	0.78	224,582	815	Travel between countries, usually by flights. Often in the context of COVID and related to Africa and China.
	mistreatment	0.68	58,306	670	Description of mistreatment of particular groups of people such as Kenyans, Africans, or Chinese people.

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