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Table 5 Polarization Prediction results in 15 individual country elections

From: Estimating ideology and polarization in European countries using Facebook data

Country

Date

Real

BL pred

BL Error

\(P_{1}\) pred

\(P_{1}\) error

Austria

2019-09-29

3.928

3.959

−0.031

3.986

−0.058

Belgium

2019-05-26

5.005

4.130

0.875

4.670

0.335

Croatia

2020-07-05

4.385

4.166

0.219

4.503

−0.118

Denmark

2019-06-05

4.666

4.727

−0.061

4.753

−0.087

Estonia

2019-03-03

3.886

4.071

−0.185

3.432

0.454

Finland

2019-04-14

3.485

3.426

0.059

3.683

−0.198

Greece

2019-07-07

4.371

4.625

−0.253

4.070

0.302

Ireland

2020-02-08

3.645

4.036

−0.391

3.371

0.274

Lithuania

2020-10-11

3.938

4.192

−0.254

4.096

−0.158

Poland

2019-10-13

3.383

2.495

0.888

3.437

−0.054

Portugal

2019-10-06

3.627

3.825

−0.197

3.488

0.124

Romania

2020-12-06

3.364

2.401

0.963

3.491

−0.127

Slovakia

2020-02-29

3.720

3.278

0.442

3.591

0.129

Spain

2019-11-10

5.195

4.504

0.690

5.409

−0.214

UK

2019-12-12

3.447

4.817

−1.369

4.106

0.658

 

Baseline model

\(P_{1}\) model

RMSE

0.602

0.270