Table 4 Ideology Prediction results in 15 individual country elections
From: Estimating ideology and polarization in European countries using Facebook data
Country | Date | Real | BL pred | BL Error | \(I_{1}\) pred | \(I_{1}\) error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Austria | 2019-09-29 | 5.512 | 5.487 | 0.025 | 5.417 | 0.096 |
Belgium | 2019-05-26 | 5.324 | 5.353 | −0.028 | 5.521 | 0.196 |
Croatia | 2020-07-05 | 5.894 | 5.512 | 0.382 | 5.635 | 0.259 |
Denmark | 2019-06-05 | 5.260 | 4.970 | 0.290 | 5.172 | 0.089 |
Estonia | 2019-03-03 | 5.842 | 6.105 | −0.263 | 5.233 | 0.609 |
Finland | 2019-04-14 | 5.353 | 5.530 | −0.176 | 5.759 | −0.405 |
Greece | 2019-07-07 | 4.781 | 4.978 | −0.197 | 4.752 | 0.029 |
Ireland | 2020-02-08 | 4.583 | 4.548 | 0.035 | 4.690 | −0.107 |
Lithuania | 2020-10-11 | 5.283 | 5.134 | 0.149 | 4.982 | 0.301 |
Poland | 2019-10-13 | 6.351 | 6.837 | −0.486 | 6.233 | 0.119 |
Portugal | 2019-10-06 | 4.580 | 4.507 | 0.073 | 4.306 | 0.274 |
Romania | 2020-12-06 | 5.441 | 5.362 | 0.078 | 5.792 | −0.352 |
Slovakia | 2020-02-29 | 6.465 | 6.335 | 0.130 | 6.104 | 0.360 |
Spain | 2019-11-10 | 5.271 | 5.103 | 0.168 | 4.963 | 0.308 |
UK | 2019-12-12 | 5.722 | 5.940 | −0.219 | 5.802 | −0.080 |
Baseline model | \(I_{1}\) model | |||||
RMSE | 0.221 | 0.284 | ||||