Figure 9

Saudi Arabia predictions, with respect to the real GPI score, and the variable “Cooperate economically”. Saudi Arabia 6-months-ahead predictions (orange curve), with respect to the real GPI score (blue curve), and the variable “Cooperate economically” (green curve). This variable pushes the model to underestimate the monthly value of October 2018 (vertical dashed black line). The reason for this error is the assassination of Jamal Khashoggi in this specific month