Figure 15

Yemen predictions, with respect to the real GPI score and the variable “Provide military aid”. Yemen 1-month-ahead model predictions (orange curve), with respect to the real GPI score (blue curve) and the variable “Provide military aid” (green curve). This variable pushes the model to underestimate the GPI value in June 2018 (vertical dashed black line). The reason for this error is the increase of the news on the topic in this specific month