Table 1 Key model input parameters and settings. The models are evaluated for all possible combinations of all parameter values shown in black. Parameter values in grey are used only with select other parameter combinations

Size of population

, 100k

Population structure

uniform

Transmission prob.(\({\beta _{i}}\))

1.89, 2.87, 3.74, [%]

Contact rate (\({n_{c}}\))

10,

R0

2.0, 3.0, 4.0

Calculated from \({\beta _{i}}\) and \({n_{c}}\).

Trans. prob. curve (μ,γ,β)

(−2.42, 2.08, 1.56)

[26, 35, 38, 41]

Incubation time curve (μ,γ,β)

(0, 3.06, 2.44)

[25, 28, 42]

Fraction symptomatic (α)

0.4, 0.6, 0.8, 0.95

[29–33, 43, 44]

Asymptomatic trans. scaling (\({\eta _{as}}\))

1.0

[4, 35–37, 39]

Interventions start (\({f_{i}}\))

The fraction of the population exposed when interventions start.

Quarantine duration

14 days

Reported from symptoms (\({f_{m}}\))

1.0

Fraction of symptomatic carriers that see a doctor.

Trace back (\({\Delta T _{\mathrm {trace}}}\))

7 [days]

Time window for CT.

App coverage (\({ p_{\mathrm {app}}}\))

0.6, 0.75, 0.9, 1.0

Fraction of the population that uses the DCTS.

Tracing efficiency (\({\eta _{\mathrm {DCT}}}\))

0.5, 0.75, 1.0

Chance that a contact between two users of the DCTS is successfully traced.

Tracing order

1

Trace uninfected contacts

True, False

Tracing delay (\({T_{\mathrm {delay}}}\))

0 [days]

SD upper limit, factor

(60, 1.0),

Maximum number of contacts per day, factor by which mean number of contacts is scaled.

Random testing rate (\({f_{\mathrm {RT}}}\))

0.00, [1/day]

Fraction of population tested per day.

Days to test result

0 [days]

False positive rate

0.00

Re-test interval (\({\delta T_{\mathrm {re\text{-}test}}}\))

5 [days]

Traced people that test negative on tracing day are tested again after this time interval.

True positive rate (\({p_{m}}\))

0.9

For the POC test on days with peak test efficiency