Figure 11

Outcomes when the contagiousness of a- and pre-symptomatic carriers, \({\eta _{as}}\), is smaller than 1. Settings are \({R_{0}}= 3\), \({ p_{\mathrm {app}}}= 0.6\), \({\eta _{\mathrm {DCT}}}= 1.0\), trace uninfected contacts = false. The values printed for \({R_{e}}\) correspond to: (first number) the mean minus the standard deviation, and (second number) the mean plus the standard deviation, of the distribution of \({R_{e}}\) from 100 simulations (compare Fig. 6 bottom right panel), while the color of the field shows the mean. Where values are exactly 0.0, none of the 100 simulations had an outbreak (compare Sect. 4.5)