Figure 1

Course of the disease with probability distribution for the incubation period \({T_{\mathrm {Inc}}}\) (top) [25] and the fully correlated probability density function for the contagiousness \({T_{\mathrm {con}}}\) (bottom) [26]. The dotted vertical lines corresponds to the median of \({T_{\mathrm {Inc}}}\). The probability for a true–positive point-of-care (POC) test is displayed on the bottom left (grey line). The diamonds correspond to exposure (contact, black), end of latency/begin of contagious period (magenta) and symptom onset (teal)