Figure 4

Inferred probability matrix for a group of users to guess ↑. The symbols on the x-axis represent the context according to the following notation: market move \(\in\lbrace\uparrow,\downarrow\rbrace\), outcome of previous guess \(\in\lbrace\text{right }\checkmark, \text{wrong }\times\rbrace\), expert’s guess \(\in\lbrace \uparrow, \downarrow, \text{-} \rbrace\). We see the groups tend to describe well defined behaviors since the majority of matrix elements are either 1 or 0