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Table 1 In-sample results. Regression results for asylum acceptance rates considering public debate in the media and economic indicators as explanatory variables. \(R^{2}\) values are as in [66]. Coefficients of public debate variables represent logit-logit marginal effects. Coefficients of control variables represent % change in odds with respect to 1 standard deviation change in variable. Small number in parentheses below estimates represents standard error

From: Public debate in the media matters: evidence from the European refugee crisis

 

Dep. variable: Logit (Acceptance ratesijt)

 

Media models

Controls models

Full models

 

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

Media measures: (\(X _{i}^{t} - \overline{ X }_{i}^{t}\))

      

Sentiment, refugee − baseline

 

0.099

   

−1.082

 

(0.078)

   

(0.718)

Sentiment, refugee

0.462∗∗∗

   

1.186∗∗

 

(0.035)

   

(0.399)

 

Attention

−0.004∗

0.006∗∗∗

  

0.038∗

0.071∗∗∗

(0.002)

(0.002)

  

(0.017)

(0.016)

Media measures:\(\overline{ X }_{i}\)

      

Sentiment, refugee

0.859∗

0.97∗

  

0.275

0.983

(0.38)

(0.38)

  

(4.515)

(4.592)

Attention

0.029∗

0.026∗

  

0.322

0.314

(0.011)

(0.011)

  

(0.195)

(0.203)

Time-dependent controls: (\(X _{i}^{t} - \overline{ X }_{i}^{t}\))

      

Apps. received

  

0.023

0.01

0.001

0.002

  

(0.014)

(0.014)

(0.014)

(0.014)

GDP

   

−0.066∗∗

−0.074∗∗

−0.072∗∗

   

(0.024)

(0.023)

(0.023)

Gov. debt

   

0.124∗∗∗

0.111∗∗∗

0.12∗∗∗

   

(0.027)

(0.026)

(0.027)

Unemployment

   

0.011

0.011

0.017

   

(0.014)

(0.014)

(0.014)

CPI

   

−0.002

0.003

0.023

   

(0.03)

(0.03)

(0.03)

Gov. ideology (left < 0 < right)

   

−0.019

−0.009

−0.008

   

(0.016)

(0.016)

(0.016)

Press freedom index

   

0.247∗∗∗

0.211∗∗∗

0.236∗∗∗

   

(0.021)

(0.023)

(0.022)

Time-invariant controls:\(\overline{ X }_{i}\)

      

Apps. received

  

0.08

0.038

0.018

0.016

  

(0.093)

(0.097)

(0.096)

(0.095)

GDP

   

−1.297∗∗∗

−0.812

−0.794

   

(0.307)

(0.409)

(0.394)

Gov. debt

   

1.503∗∗

0.853

0.841

   

(0.415)

(0.575)

(0.55)

Unemployment

   

−0.447∗∗

−0.451∗∗

−0.448∗∗

   

(0.149)

(0.15)

(0.149)

CPI

   

0.309∗

0.316∗

0.323∗

   

(0.124)

(0.126)

(0.122)

Gov. ideology (left < 0 < right)

   

0.089

0.075

0.065

   

(0.086)

(0.09)

(0.091)

Press freedom index

   

0.025

0.351

0.354

   

(0.126)

(0.235)

(0.232)

Num. observations

11,593

11,593

11,593

11,593

11,593

11,593

Marginal \(R^{2}\)

0.02

0.01

>0.01

0.06

0.06

0.06

Conditional \(R^{2}\)

0.76

0.76

0.79

0.79

0.79

0.79

AICc

−9662

−9414

42,199

41,724

41,505

41,175

BIC

−9603

−9356

42,243

41,857

41,667

41,337

  1. Note:∗p<0.05; ∗∗p<0.01; ∗∗∗p<0.001.