Figure 6

Predicting specialization. Top panel: In the swarm plot every dot represents a PACS code-city pair where the time period is reported on x-axis, the observed level of knowledge density on the y-axis, and the transition type is identified the color of the dot. From this representation we observe that urban areas tend to develop quicker in activities around which their knowledge density was higher. Bottom panel: The boxplot represents the distribution of the values of the area under the ROC curve when knowledge density is used to predict urban scientific specialization. Values of accuracy greater than 50% imply a better predictive power than a model assuming random specialization patterns