Table 2 Predicting change in vote share outcomes
From: Wikipedia traffic data and electoral prediction: towards theoretically informed models
Model 2.0: Baseline | Model 2.1: Baseline with corrections | Model 2.2: Full model | Model 2.3: Baseline with Wikipedia | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
β | SE | β | SE | β | SE | β | SE | |
Intercept | −0.02 | (0.89) | −0.43 | (2.26) | −5.75∗ | (2.35) | −5.67∗∗∗ | (1.47) |
Change in previous national result | 0.46∗∗ | (0.14) | 0.45∗∗ | (0.14) | 0.37∗∗ | (0.13) | 0.38∗∗ | (0.12) |
News | −0.01 | (0.11) | −0.02 | (0.10) | ||||
New party | 2.52 | (2.17) | 5.08 | (2.98) | 4.78 | (2.75) | ||
Incumbency | −3.30 | (4.81) | 0.81 | (4.33) | ||||
News x incumbency | 0.10 | (0.20) | 0.00 | (0.18) | ||||
Wikipedia | 0.37∗∗∗ | (0.09) | 0.36∗∗∗ | (0.09) | ||||
New party x Wikipedia | −0.26∗ | (0.12) | −0.24∗ | (0.11) | ||||
\({R}^{2}\) | 0.17 | 0.21 | 0.42 | 0.41 | ||||
Adjusted \({R}^{2}\) | 0.15 | 0.13 | 0.34 | 0.37 | ||||
AIC | 398.69 | 403.81 | 389.9 | 384.11 | ||||
BIC | 404.92 | 418.36 | 408.6 | 396.58 | ||||
n | 59 | 59 | 59 | 59 | ||||