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Table 2 Predicting change in vote share outcomes

From: Wikipedia traffic data and electoral prediction: towards theoretically informed models

  Model 2.0: Baseline Model 2.1: Baseline with corrections Model 2.2: Full model Model 2.3: Baseline with Wikipedia
β SE β SE β SE β SE
Intercept −0.02 (0.89) −0.43 (2.26) −5.75 (2.35) −5.67 (1.47)
Change in previous national result 0.46 (0.14) 0.45 (0.14) 0.37 (0.13) 0.38 (0.12)
News    −0.01 (0.11) −0.02 (0.10)   
New party    2.52 (2.17) 5.08 (2.98) 4.78 (2.75)
Incumbency    −3.30 (4.81) 0.81 (4.33)   
News x incumbency    0.10 (0.20) 0.00 (0.18)   
Wikipedia      0.37 (0.09) 0.36 (0.09)
New party x Wikipedia      −0.26 (0.12) −0.24 (0.11)
\({R}^{2}\) 0.17   0.21   0.42   0.41  
Adjusted \({R}^{2}\) 0.15   0.13   0.34   0.37  
AIC 398.69   403.81   389.9   384.11  
BIC 404.92   418.36   408.6   396.58  
n 59   59   59   59  
  1. p<0.05, p<0.01, p<0.001.