Table 1 Predicting absolute vote share outcomes
From: Wikipedia traffic data and electoral prediction: towards theoretically informed models
Model 1.0: Baseline | Model 1.1: Baseline with corrections | Model 1.2: Full model | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
β | SE | β | SE | β | SE | |
Intercept | 5.80∗∗∗ | (1.16) | 3.32 | (1.68) | 0.82 | (1.94) |
Previous national result | 0.61∗∗∗ | (0.06) | 0.29∗∗ | (0.09) | 0.33∗∗∗ | (0.09) |
News | 0.45∗∗∗ | (0.10) | 0.41∗∗∗ | (0.10) | ||
New party | −0.73 | (1.64) | 1.26 | (2.53) | ||
Incumbency | −6.75 | (3.57) | −4.91 | (3.55) | ||
News x incumbency | 0.26 | (0.15) | 0.19 | (0.15) | ||
Wikipedia | 0.18∗ | (0.08) | ||||
New party x Wikipedia | −0.15 | (0.10) | ||||
\({R}^{2}\) | 0.67 | 0.79 | 0.81 | |||
Adjusted \({R}^{2}\) | 0.66 | 0.77 | 0.78 | |||
AIC | 386.32 | 368.44 | 366.43 | |||
BIC | 392.55 | 382.98 | 385.13 | |||
n | 59 | 59 | 59 | |||