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Table 1 Predicting absolute vote share outcomes

From: Wikipedia traffic data and electoral prediction: towards theoretically informed models

  Model 1.0: Baseline Model 1.1: Baseline with corrections Model 1.2: Full model
β SE β SE β SE
Intercept 5.80 (1.16) 3.32 (1.68) 0.82 (1.94)
Previous national result 0.61 (0.06) 0.29 (0.09) 0.33 (0.09)
News    0.45 (0.10) 0.41 (0.10)
New party    −0.73 (1.64) 1.26 (2.53)
Incumbency    −6.75 (3.57) −4.91 (3.55)
News x incumbency    0.26 (0.15) 0.19 (0.15)
Wikipedia      0.18 (0.08)
New party x Wikipedia      −0.15 (0.10)
\({R}^{2}\) 0.67   0.79   0.81  
Adjusted \({R}^{2}\) 0.66   0.77   0.78  
AIC 386.32   368.44   366.43  
BIC 392.55   382.98   385.13  
n 59   59   59  
  1. p<0.05, p<0.01, p<0.001.