Figure 4

Google Trends volume and momentum vs. on-street protests for Venezuela. Left panel: Green dots represent actual on-street civil unrest events. The black dots show predictions using our semi-automated procedure as discussed in the text. Solid red line shows volume for keyword paro (i.e. stoppage) while dashed red line shows its momentum (i.e. rate of change of volume). Solid blue line shows volume for keyword huelga (i.e. strike) while dashed blue line shows its momentum (i.e. rate of change of volume). An accurate prediction corresponds to a coincident black and green dot, and corresponds to a true positive (TP). See text. Solid circles take the value of 1 or 0, but for clarity, no solid circle appears on days for which there are zero events. Right panel: Results for different pairs of keywords: (1) protesta, (2) huelga, (3) manifestacion, (4) marcha, (5) paro. Corresponding P1 (grey), B1 (cyan) and P0 (yellow) are shown for each combination. Adding these gives the S0 value given in the text. The maximum value is shown in green and corresponds to the optimal value of the combination S0, rather than the optimal value of B1 or P1 or P0 individually.