Figure 4

Conditional probability of winning for individual managers after they changed or did not change the formation. A circle represents a manager associated with a team, who directed the team in at least 100 matches. A large circle represents a manager who showed both types of the actions (e.g., formation change after a win and no formation change after a win in (a) and (c)) at least ten times. A small circle represents a manager who presented either type of action less than ten times. (a) When the team won the previous match in the J-League data. (b) When the team lost the previous match in the J-League data. (c) When the team won the previous match in the Bundesliga data. (d) When the team lost the previous match in the Bundesliga data.