Figure 2

Election models and results of the 2021 Mexican legislative election. The figure shows the vote-share for the ruling parties during May 2021 according to all models, as well as the official results (black thick dashed line) and results of polling aggregates (black thin dotted line) with reported uncertainties (grey shaded region). The election models are shown as box plots defined by the median and the lower and upper quartiles. Models using geodata (blue and red) outperform conventional polls. Additionally, we present an alternative model (yellow) which considers positive-allegiance tweets exclusively (see Sect. 3.3 for more details). Model nomenclature is defined with three letters as follows. The first letter determines if the database considered is complete (C) or only accounts for tweets with geodata (G). The second letter determines if the analysis is volumetric (V) or focuses on determined allegiances (A). The third letter determines if the analysis is performed in all tweets (T) or focuses on individual users (U)